---
title: Cold Outbound Optimizer
description: Design, analyze, and optimize cold outbound email campaigns for Instantly. Handles end-to-end ICP definition, expert panel scoring (recursive to 90+), sequence copywriting, infrastructure audit, capac…
category: Marketing
sublabel: Strategy
author: Eric Siu
tags: 
license: MIT
source: https://github.com/ericosiu/ai-marketing-skills
---

## Preamble (runs on skill start)

```bash
# Version check (silent if up to date)
python3 telemetry/version_check.py 2>/dev/null || true

# Telemetry opt-in (first run only, then remembers your choice)
python3 telemetry/telemetry_init.py 2>/dev/null || true
```

> **Privacy:** This skill logs usage locally to `~/.ai-marketing-skills/analytics/`. Remote telemetry is opt-in only. No code, file paths, or repo content is ever collected. See `telemetry/README.md`.

---

# Cold Outbound Optimizer

---

## Startup: Determine Mode

Ask the user:
1. Do you have an **existing Instantly account** with campaigns to audit, or are you **starting from scratch**?
2. Do you have an **Instantly API key**? (Required for audit mode.)

If API key provided → run `scripts/instantly-audit.py` to pull campaigns, account inventory, and warmup scores before proceeding.

---

## Phase 1: Discovery & Audit

### 1A — Infrastructure Check (if API key available)
Run `python3 scripts/instantly-audit.py --api-key <KEY>` and report:
- Active campaigns (name, status, reply rate, open rate)
- Sending accounts (count, warmup score, daily limit)
- Domain inventory
- Warmup gaps: any account with score <80 or <14 days warmup → flag as NOT ready

### 1B — Performance Data
- Pull campaign analytics from Instantly
- Ask: "Do you have a spreadsheet with historical outbound data?" If yes, request link.

### 1C — ICP Definition
If no ICP defined, collect:
- **Titles:** Who are you targeting? (e.g., VP Marketing, Head of Growth)
- **Industries:** Which verticals?
- **Company size:** Employee count or revenue range?
- **Revenue floor:** Minimum ARR/revenue to qualify?
- **Anti-ICP:** Who to explicitly exclude?

Use `references/icp-template.md` as the collection template.

### 1D — Business Context
Collect:
- What do you sell? (One sentence, no jargon)
- What's the primary offer? (Free trial, audit, demo, consultation)
- Real URLs to reference (pricing page, case studies, relevant content)
- Any proof points? (Client results, stats, social proof)

### 1E — Expert Panel Config
Default: 10 experts (see `references/expert-panel.md`).
Ask: "Any industry-specific experts to add, or panelists to swap?" Confirm roster before scoring.

---

## Phase 2: Expert Panel Recursive Scoring

**Target: 90/100. Non-negotiable. Iterate until reached.**

### Round Structure
Each round produces:
1. **Score table** — all 10 panelists, individual score (0-100), one-line rationale
2. **Aggregate score** — average of all 10
3. **Top weaknesses** — ranked list of what's holding the copy back
4. **Changes made** — specific edits addressing each weakness
5. **Updated copy** — full revised sequence after changes

### Scoring Criteria (per panelist's lens — see `references/expert-panel.md`)
- Subject line curiosity / open rate potential
- First sentence pattern interrupt
- Body clarity and brevity
- CTA softness and specificity
- Sequence flow and follow-up logic
- Deliverability risk signals (spam words, link density)
- Personalization believability

### Rules
- Scores must be brutally honest. No padding to 90 without earning it.
- If round score < 90: identify top 3 weaknesses, revise copy, run next round.
- If round score ≥ 90: finalize copy and proceed to deliverables.
- Show every round in the final doc — the iteration trail is part of the value.

---

## Phase 3: Deliverables

### Strategy Doc
Create a document (Google Doc, Notion, or markdown) with:

1. **Pre-Analysis / Brutal Truth** — what the existing campaigns are doing wrong (or baseline if starting from scratch)
2. **ICP Summary** — confirmed targeting parameters
3. **Infrastructure Status** — account inventory, warmup readiness, capacity math
4. **Scoring Rounds** — full panel vote tables for every round
5. **Final Email Copy** — all steps for all campaigns, Instantly-ready format
6. **Implementation Plan** — step-by-step setup instructions
7. **Capacity Math** — accounts × daily send rate = pipeline projections
8. **Weekly Metrics Targets** — open rate, reply rate, positive reply rate, meetings booked
9. **STOP List** — what to kill immediately
10. **START List** — what to launch first

### Format Rules for Final Copy
Follow all rules in `references/instantly-rules.md` and `references/copy-rules.md`.

### Human Review Gate
**Do NOT push anything to Instantly automatically.** The doc is for human review. Get explicit approval before any API writes.

### Iteration
After review, collect feedback and re-run scoring on revised copy if needed.

---

## Capacity Math Formula

```
Accounts ready (score ≥80, ≥14 days warmup) × 30 emails/day = conservative daily volume
Accounts ready × 50 emails/day = aggressive daily volume
Daily volume × 22 working days = monthly send capacity
Monthly sends × expected reply rate = expected replies
Expected replies × qualification rate = pipeline opportunities
```

---

## Weekly Metrics Targets (Baselines)

| Metric | Good | Great |
|--------|------|-------|
| Open rate | 40%+ | 60%+ |
| Reply rate | 3%+ | 7%+ |
| Positive reply rate | 1%+ | 3%+ |
| Meeting rate | 0.5%+ | 1.5%+ |

Adjust targets based on niche and offer. Cold traffic to a free audit converts differently than a paid trial.

---

## Add-On Recommendations (mention but don't build)

- **LinkedIn automation:** HeyReach or similar for multi-channel sequences. Separate workflow.
- **Lead enrichment:** Clay or Apollo for personalization data before upload.
- **Lead pipeline:** Use `scripts/lead-pipeline.py` for Apollo → LeadMagic → Instantly automation.

---

## Reference Files

| File | Purpose |
|------|---------|
| `references/instantly-rules.md` | Variable syntax, sequence structure, deliverability rules |
| `references/expert-panel.md` | Default 10-expert roster with scoring lenses |
| `references/copy-rules.md` | Email copy rules (first sentence, CTA, stats framing) |
| `references/icp-template.md` | ICP data collection template |
| `scripts/instantly-audit.py` | Pulls campaigns, accounts, warmup scores via Instantly v2 API |
| `scripts/lead-pipeline.py` | End-to-end lead sourcing pipeline |
| `scripts/competitive-monitor.py` | Competitor tracking and intelligence |
| `scripts/cross-signal-detector.py` | Multi-source signal detection |
| `scripts/cold-outbound-sender.py` | Send approved outbound emails |